Estimates of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths Among Nursing Home Residents Not Reported in Federal Data.

Importance: Federal data underestimate the impact of COVID-19 on US nursing homes because federal reporting guidelines did not require facilities to report case and death data until the week ending May 24, 2020. Objective: To assess the magnitude of unreported cases and deaths in the National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) and provide national estimates of cases and deaths adjusted for nonreporting. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a cross-sectional study comparing COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by US nursing homes to the NHSN with those reported to state departments of health in late May 2020. The sample includes nursing homes from 20 states, with 4598 facilities in 12 states that required facilities to report cases and 7401 facilities in 19 states that required facilities to report deaths. Estimates of nonreporting were extrapolated to infer the national (15 397 facilities) unreported cases and deaths in both May and December 2020. Data were analyzed from December 2020 to May 2021. Exposures: Nursing home ownership (for-profit or not-for-profit), chain affiliation, size, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services star rating, and state. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was the difference between the COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by each facility to their state department of health vs those reported to the NHSN. Results: Among 15 415 US nursing homes, including 4599 with state case data and 7405 with state death data, a mean (SE) of 43.7% (1.4%) of COVID-19 cases and 40.0% (1.1%) of COVID-19 deaths prior to May 24 were not reported in the first NHSN submission in sample states, suggesting that 68 613 cases and 16 623 deaths were omitted nationwide, representing 11.6% of COVID-19 cases and 14.0% of COVID-19 deaths among nursing home residents in 2020. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that federal NHSN data understated total cases and deaths in nursing homes. Failure to account for this issue may lead to misleading conclusions about the role of different facility characteristics and state or federal policies in explaining COVID outbreaks.

Association between nursing home staff turnover and infection control citations.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the association between nursing home staff turnover and the presence and scope of infection control citations. DATA SOURCES: Secondary data for all US nursing homes between March 31, 2017, through December 31, 2019 were obtained from Payroll-Based Journal (PBJ), Nursing Home Compare, and Long-Term Care: Facts on Care in the US (LTC Focus). STUDY DESIGN: We estimated the association between nurse turnover and the probability of an infection control citation and the scope of the citation while controlling for nursing home fixed effects. Our turnover measure is the percent of the facility's nursing staff hours that were provided by new staff (less than 60 days of experience in the last 180 days) during the 2 weeks prior to the health inspection. We calculated turnover for all staff together and separately for registered nurses, licensed practical nurses (LPNs), and certified nursing assistants. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: We linked nursing homes standard inspection surveys to 650 million shifts from the PBJ data. We excluded any nursing home with incomplete or missing staffing data. Our final analytic sample included 12,550 nursing homes with 30,536 surveys. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Staff turnover was associated with an increased likelihood of an infection control citation (average marginal effect [AME] = 0.12 percentage points [pp]; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.05, 0.18). LPN (AME = 0.06 pp; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.11) turnover was conditionally associated with an infection control citation. Conditional on having at least an isolated citation for infection control, staff turnover was positively associated with receiving a citation coded as a "pattern" (AME = 0.21 pp; 95% CI: 0.10, 0.32). Conditional of having at least a pattern citation, staff turnover was positively associated with receiving a widespread citation (AME = 0.21 pp; 95% CI: 0.10, 0.32). CONCLUSIONS: Turnover was positively associated with the probability of an infection control citation. Staff turnover should be considered an important factor related to the spread of infections within nursing homes.

Characteristics of U.S. Nursing Homes with COVID-19 Cases.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been documented in a large share of nursing homes throughout the United States, leading to high rates of mortality for residents. To understand how to prevent and mitigate future outbreaks, it is imperative that we understand which nursing homes are more likely to experience COVID-19 cases. Our aim was to examine the characteristics of nursing homes with documented COVID-19 cases in the 30 states reporting the individual facilities affected. DESIGN: We constructed a database of nursing homes with verified COVID-19 cases as of May 11, 2020, via correspondence with and publicly available reports from state departments of health. We linked this information to nursing home characteristics and used regression analysis to examine the association between these characteristics and the likelihood of having a documented COVID-19 case. SETTING: All nursing homes from 30 states that reported COVID-19 cases at the facility-level. PARTICIPANTS: Nursing home residents in states reporting data. MEASUREMENTS: Whether a nursing home had a reported COVID-19 case (yes/no), and conditional on having a case, the number of cases at a nursing home. RESULTS: Of 9,395 nursing homes in our sample, 2,949 (31.4%) had a documented COVID-19 case. Larger facility size, urban location, greater percentage of African American residents, non-chain status, and state were significantly (P < .05) related to the increased probability of having a COVID-19 case. Five-star rating, prior infection violation, Medicaid dependency, and ownership were not significantly related. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 cases in nursing homes are related to facility location and size and not traditional quality metrics such as star rating and prior infection control citations. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:1653-1656, 2020.